The thread. The single cleanest piece of counter-evidence comes from CFB himself.
Points against Satoshi
He registered on BitcoinTalk in November 2011, and describes buying in around then: “I registered on this forum after I had bought bitcoins. They were $2 those days, so I made a fortune.” Two-dollar bitcoins point to late 2011 — after Satoshi’s last known activity in December 2010. By his own account he bought in; he didn’t mine the genesis block. He’s also nostalgic elsewhere about “those days of $2 bitcoins.”
If you take him at his word, he arrived as a customer, late.
Points toward Satoshi
The catch: this is a self-report from a documented troll who is fluent in misdirection and obsessed with hiding identity. A man capable of running the BCNext disappearing act is capable of seeding a tidy “I came late” cover story. His deep 2009–2010 internal knowledge (block-size, commit habits) sits uneasily beside a 2011 arrival.
Weight
The strongest single argument against — and the reason this site doesn’t declare him Satoshi. But it rests entirely on trusting the word of someone who specializes in not being trusted.